The Alternative Vote in Rochester: Yes or No?

By jayenolan | Wednesday, May 04, 2011, 17:02

I have to admit, I thought the Yes and No campaigns for the Alternative Vote referendum would be a lot more vociferous than they are, considering it's tomorrow.

The Alternative Vote referendum is tomorrow; Yes or No, your choice.

I think it's a given that Conservatives want a 'No' vote and Labour a 'Yes' - but what about all our independents and smaller parties? How about letting us know where you stand?

At the moment, word is that the 'No' vote are heading for a landslide. Why do you think this is and does that information induce you to go and vote 'Yes' or will you be happy with that outcome?

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Comments

Honestly, folks, AV is a BAD system for parliamentary elections. Because of the interest and topicality of this, I've had a think and devised what I think is a brand new model that might satisfy just about everyone. If not, it might at least give an even better idea to someone reading it, and I've already had one comment suggesting looking at something else. Here's my effort: http://tinyurl.com/3qevslv

By John_M_Ward at 23:18 on 04/05/11
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Well it's certainly a thought, Mr Fribbins, but when you were with Labour, back in 2003, you achieved 898 votes against the Conservatives' over 1,500 apiece. Standing as an Independent in 2007 reduced your vote to just 735, and the winning Conservatives' votes were higher on that occasion, so it's quite a mountain to climb.

Incidentally, this gives me an opportunity to say that I found your informative comments on Alan Watkins' 'blog re parish councils most illuminating and a good attempt to redress the balance. He seems to have an obsession with the subject, even though it's nothing to do with Gun Wharf, after which his 'blog in named...

By John_M_Ward at 23:10 on 04/05/11
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Looked at your past results. Fourth in 2003 and 2007, just need to move up one place to nick a seat - third time lucky.

Chris Fribbins

By Medway Computer Assistance Ltd at 22:59 on 04/05/11
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Thanks for the kind ack'. I hope it will turn out to be useful. In fact, I've been watching the political scene both locally and beyond for some time now, and have produced (a few weeks ago) what I believe is the only complete set of predictions for the Medway Council elections tomorrow.

In the past I have also produced re-designed ward boundaries that fit around communities rather than bureaucrats' over-stipulations, analysed our past local elections' results, and a host of other matters. They're all on my 'blog at http://tinyurl.com/nzukqv which might be a worthwhile resource, as was (and to an extent still is) my "Former Councillor" website at http://tinyurl.com/3dk9oab .

I'm not touting these, merely offering their content as a way to aid those trying to understand some of what is going on and recent history. For example, the latter site has the full election results for all of Medway Unitary Authority's elections (i.e. from 1997) by ward.

By John_M_Ward at 22:50 on 04/05/11
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I think there has been a great deal of dishonesty on both the yes and no camps. The impact of AV would be relatively minor and in my view is not enough. FPTP is really only suitable for a two candidate race and is not suitable for three or more way marginals. Why is the idea of a second or third preference such a bad idea if your preferred candidate gets knocked out early, you have the chance to say who you would prefer as an alternative. If your candidate stays in your vote continues to count at each subsequent round. There is always however some built in reluctance to change to something new.

By Medway Computer Assistance Ltd at 22:35 on 04/05/11
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